First of all, last weekend was the biggest in September history. So there’s that.
Are you ready for some football? Because it looks like most moviegoers are - tracking on all 3 new releases is very soft. While 50/50 looks great to us, and we’re Jim Sheridan fans, neither film is scoring in pre-release polls. 50/50 has an overall first choice of 6%. DREAM HOUSE is stalled at 5% F.C. WHAT’S YOUR NUMBER? has connected with young females and no one else - 11% of women under 25 call it their first choice. Word of mouth on the movie is that it doesn’t work… Anna Faris or no Anna Faris.
The top total awareness number is also puny - 50/50 is on the radar of just 64% of the potential audience, and that’s not good. The others are less than 60. It’s a soft soft soft - soft - weekend of debuts. Pillows. Look for Simba to run wild again this weekend. The real question is whether MONEYBALL plays to an audience that has real baseball playoffs to watch.
Next weekend, REAL STEEL has a real shot at success. The film has tested so highly that the sequel is being written now. But total awareness to date is weak - just 58%. It has a first choice of 8%, definite interest is 39%. They have the Disney marketing machine to rely on, but a ways to go to build the audience for opening weekend.
George Clooney intends to totally blow your mind with THE IDES OF MARCH… if you listen to any of the gum-flapping that has surrounded the press tour and festival circuit, that is. Word is fairly mixed on the film. It does have Ryan Gosling in it, though, and if there’s one thing that the last month has made clear, it’s that the ladies get all flush for Ryan Gosling. Tracking is quite good for a political piece. Total awareness is 61% with a week to go, while lame ‘this one time at Lake Como…’ stories are up 10,000%. First choice on the picture is 6%. All in all, it should perform well for Sony. The budget was only $20 million, and it’s got star power and a very solid director in Mr. Clooney.
FOOTLOOSE doesn’t have to be good to make money. It’s two weeks away, and has a first choice of 10% for young women. Total awareness is already at 71%. What’s wrong with THE BIG YEAR? Directed by David Frankel, something’s up… the campaign is back-loaded and its numbers correspond to that. With Steve Martin, Owen Wilson, and Jack Black together, we’ll see it, even if we wind up regretting it. Frankel has delivered solid commercial hits time after time - but there’s some reason Fox has held its cards on the movie. First choice is 2%, total awareness is just 43%. Do you care about THE THING remake? You must be a young male (under 25). With a 7% first choice in that demo, Universal has something to be happy about. But the weekend of the 14th looks like REAL STEEL will hold and win its second straight.
The weekend of the 21st, there won’t be formal ceremony… But PARANORMAL ACTIVITY is the new SAW. Like that old franchise, people will show up pre-halloween as a matter of course. Apparently 8% of all people are afraid of noises in the dark, as that’s the first choice number a month away from release. Paramount will continue to print money from this franchise. THE THREE MUSKETEERS trailer is everywhere, and it’s connecting. Total awareness is already 72%, which surpasses PA3.
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