Wondering who’s seeing what this weekend? Wonder no more. The tracking is shocking. Younger men are connecting with 30 MINUTES OR LESS and older women are connecting with THE HELP. Take a deep breath, and re-read that. Still not shocked? Neither are we. What is interesting, though, is that THE HELP is tracking just behind RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES for total first choice interest for the weekend. It’s not exactly a summer movie, and yet 15% of audiences list the Emma Stone-starrer as their first choice compared with 16% who do so for the James Franco remake. And, THE HELP is doing better with its target than 30 MINUTES is. THE HELP, which already opened to $5.5 million yesterday, has 47% of younger women definitely interested, and 63% of women over 25 definitely interested in seeing the film. Conversely, 50% of younger men are definitely interested in 30 MINUTES, as are 26% of adult women and men, and 32% of younger women.
The weekend’s two other releases are tracking as you’d expect. FINAL DESTINATION 5 is connecting with moviegoers 32% of whom have definite interest in seeing the movie, which is fair given the nature of the franchise. GLEE: THE 3D CONCERT MOVIE is barely connecting with audiences. While 31% of younger women are definitely interested in seeing the film, only 13% list it as their first choice, and that’s not enough to carry the movie - especially since only 2% of women over 25 and 1% of men under 25 list it as their first choice for the weekend.
We’re going to call the following weekend, and give it to CONAN THE BARBARIAN. 33% of men of all ages are definitely interested in the movie two weeks out, and 5 and 6% list it aas their first choice. Of the competing movies that weekend, FRIGHT NIGHT has the strongest tracking. Definite interest for the movie is in the mid-to-high 20s for every demo except older women, where it’s a not-so-lower 23%. Comparatively, ONE DAY is tracking really poorly with men (we know, more super-shocking news). No men list it as their first choice, and the definite interest is in the teens. And women? They’re basically just as likely to see FRIGHT NIGHT. With less of a fight from their men regarding that movie, our guess is it stands a better chance. As for SPY KIDS: ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, it seems that audiences are tiring of the franchise. While total awareness is strongest for that movie - 73%, compared to CONAN’s 67%, FRIGHT NIGHT’s 59%, and ONE DAY’s 43% - interest is pretty low. 1% of moviegoers in all demos list it as their first choice, and tracking among younger men is abysmal. Only 8% have definite interest in seeing the movie. Overall positive interest for the movie is only at 33%. We’re gonna venture a guess and say there won’t be a SPY KIDS 5.
The last weekend in August has pretty even tracking. Remarkably even tracking, if you will. That weekend’s 2 releases - COLOMBIANA, DON’T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK, and OUR IDIOT BROTHER are at 27, 26, and 27% definite interest, respectively. Colombiana has a slight edge with older audiences, 31% of whom have definite interest in seeing the film. Meanwhile, DON’T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK has the strongest first choice numbers in any category , with 6% of younger women listing it as such. OUR IDIOT BROTHER is connecting well with a younger female audience too; 36% of that demo has definite interest in seeing the movie. It’s anyone’s guess who’s going to win that weekend.
And then there’s that last week of summer…Labor Day. Unaided awareness for that weekend’s releases are low, so let’s hope the rest of the month sees heavier advertising for THE DEBT, APOLLO 18, and SHARK NIGHT 3D. No one knows about THE DEBT without prompting, and only 19% of moviegoers have heard of it when prompted. All three films are connecting decently with the audiences who have heard of them. 27% of women over 25 have a definite interest in seeing THE DEBT. Meanwhile, APOLLO 18 has the highest first choice numbers - 3% of men of all ages list it as their first choice for that weekend, and 1% of women of all ages do as well, and 27% of moviegoers already have a definite interest in the film. SHARK NIGHT 3D is connecting most with younger women, 27% of whom have a definite interest in seeing the movie. If the ad campaigns for the movies heat up, we can expect the numbers to rise throughout the month.
